PJM 410 Decision Tree

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New Versus Used Car Decision Tree

Build a decision tree to help you decide if you want to purchase a new car or a used car. The biggest concern or risk with purchasing a used car is the potential need for repairs and not knowing about any previous problems the car might have had. There is a 40% chance that a used car will need to be repaired within a one-year period; however, there is a 90% chance that the new car will not need any repairs during the same period. The cost for a used car is $7,500, and the cost for a new car is $15,000.

1. Use the information in the table below to decide whether you should buy a used car versus a new car. Pick the decision with the lower investment required.
2. Create a decision tree to show outcomes for each decision node using the SilverDecisions website (http://silverdecisions.pl/SilverDecisions.html?lang=en (Links to an external site.)). Note: While the SilverDecisions tool is intuitive, you can find a manual at http://silverdecisions.pl/ (Links to an external site.).
3. Calculate the expected value of each outcome and show your calculations (Probability x Impact).
4. Export your decision tree as a .png file and save it on your computer.
5. Explain the best option based on the outcome and why.

Cost to buy a new car

$15,000
Cost to buy a used car $7,500
Probability of not having any repairs within one year 90%
Probability of repairing a used car within one year 40%
Cost of repairs for new car $5,000
Cost of repairs for used car $9,000

Be sure to properly organize your writing and include a cover page, an introduction, headings / subheadings for the body of your work, analysis and recommendations, a conclusion, an appendix, and a list of references. Consult this assignment template for a more complete list of requirements: http://csuglobal.libguides.com/ld.php?content_id=21534702 (Links to an external site.).

Your response should be 1-2 pages in length, including your decision tree, and conform to the CSU-Global Guide to Writing & APA (Links to an external site.). Copy and paste your exported SilverDecisions .png file into a Microsoft Word document for submission.

Refer to the Critical Thinking Assignment grading rubric below for more information on assignment expectations and grading. For assistance on creating a decision tree, review Section 11.4.2.5 in the PMBOK Guide (6th ed.), paying particular attention to Figure 11-15.

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