appraisal report 1

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Book Link: http://smartorg.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Dec…

Decisions: Whether I should go back to China to find a job or stay in the United State.

  1. Decision Appraisal Report 3 should build on your prior reports, and should include the answers to the original questions about your decision, i.e., a description of your decision including the short title of the decision, the alternatives, the value criteria you will use to evaluate the outcome, the main pieces of information, and key aspects of the process (see).
  2. Report number 3 should also include an Influence Diagram (ID) depicting your decision – Updated if necessary from the one you included in Report 2. Refer to the document Dialogues for Framing Decisions.pdf and the slides in section 2.1, as well as numerous examples in your readings from Decision Analysis for the Professional; Be sure your ID is accompanied by distribution trees, definitions of all nodes, and a logical description explaining the story told in the diagram.
  3. New for this report: Include Prospect Timeline Tables for at least two of your decision prospects;
  4. Be sure to include strong conclusions identifying next-steps needed to move the decision process forward in the direction of 100% on all spokes, as described in the document Decision Amplification and Appraisal.pdf
  5. Include a current Appraisal using the Decision Wheel.
  6. You should also include your prior Decision Wheel appraisal graph (0% to 100%) as an appendix to the report, for comparison to your current graph.

Comments from professor: (include mine in attachment)

1. You should include a distribution tree for every distinction in your influence diagram. Make sure you show a distribution tree for every node in your diagram. For example, see Figure 3.4 on page 47 of Decision Analysis for the Professional. Also look at Figure 7-2 on p. 189, and read from the bottom of 188 through p. 190 to make sure you understand it. You report should reflect understanding of this example. 2. You used in interesting representation for a Prospect Timeframe Table, but organization of the Prospect Table is different. Please see the examples in Module 7 and follow them more closely. The timeline goes on the horizontal axis, and the key decisions and uncertainties of each prospect should be mapped to the timeline. You could map one prospect for each of your alternatives – Home School, and Public School. Create a separate table for each one. Basically, I suggest you re-read the instructions for this assignment, and pay particular attention to Items 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 of the instructions. 3. Also, I suggest you review the final page in Module 3, “Influence Diagrams – Clarifying Lessons,” the first and third videos in particular, and reflect an understanding of those in your re-submission.

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